Catalyst — Directional
Position into the event
What it is
Take a directional share position ahead of a known catalyst — earnings, guidance or a revision cycle — without using options.
When it works
Positive (or negative) estimate revisions, beat/miss history, and a run-up/drift pattern, with the event in your window.
Why the setup pays
The Swing horizon brackets the catalyst date and Direction reflects your lean. Keeping it shares avoids paying inflated pre-event option premium — but you carry full gap risk.
The market it wants
Any regime. Works in any regime; revision momentum is best in Expansion/Recovery, misses cluster in Slowdown.
What goes wrong
Gap risk through the event — shares give no defined downside; the catalyst surprising against you.
Where it sits in the book
Catalyst — Directional belongs to Event Catalysts & Asymmetric Convexity, the group whose edge comes from tails of the distribution (extreme variance expansion). That group looks for massive event-driven shocks or catastrophic tail events, and its risk profile is bi-directional breakout, or extreme tail protection.
Run this on the live market
This is the thesis the engine scans with. It reads the whole universe, scores what matches, and prices the structures against fair value.
pre-earnings longs with raised guidance and positive revisions that haven't run yet, equity only
No account needed to run it. The free trial runs on the same live data a paid account gets.
Educational material, not investment advice. Nothing on this page is a recommendation to trade any security or structure. Options trading involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future returns.