Macro-Event Volatility
Trade FOMC / CPI like a print
What it is
Trade volatility on index / macro ETFs (SPY, QQQ, TLT) around scheduled macro events — long vol if the move is underpriced, short vol if it's rich. The ETF analog of an earnings vol play.
When it works
A macro catalyst (FOMC, CPI, NFP) inside your window where the implied move looks cheap or rich versus how the ETF historically moves on that event.
Why the setup pays
For ETFs the catalyst calendar is macro, not earnings — so DTE brackets FOMC / CPI / NFP. Direction = Neutral; Debit = long vol, Credit = short vol.
The market it wants
Pre-FOMC / CPI. Pre-FOMC / CPI; long vol in rising-VIX / uncertain regimes, short vol when the event looks over-priced and the tape is calm.
What goes wrong
Vol crush after the event; the reaction smaller (long vol) or larger (short vol) than positioned for.
Where it sits in the book
Macro-Event Volatility belongs to Event Catalysts & Asymmetric Convexity, the group whose edge comes from tails of the distribution (extreme variance expansion). That group looks for massive event-driven shocks or catastrophic tail events, and its risk profile is bi-directional breakout, or extreme tail protection.
Run this on the live market
This is the thesis the engine scans with. It reads the whole universe, scores what matches, and prices the structures against fair value.
SPY and TLT straddles into FOMC where the implied move looks cheap versus historical reaction
No account needed to run it. The free trial runs on the same live data a paid account gets.
Educational material, not investment advice. Nothing on this page is a recommendation to trade any security or structure. Options trading involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future returns.