For options traders · Stocks and ETFs

Stop paying more for options than they’re worth.

Trade direction or trade volatility. Take a view on the move from fundamentals, technicals and market context, or trade implied against realized volatility with the delta hedged to zero. Either way, see whether the market is overcharging you before you trade.

Two ways to trade · options traders

LIVE

THE CALL ON THE MOVE

Up · Momentum

SIGNALFundamentals, technicals and market context call direction and how the move travels
STRUCTURESCall and put spreads, risk reversals, collars
HEDGINGOptional: hedge the market’s beta and keep only your view on the stock
EDGEFair value vs market price on the directional structure
EXAMPLENVDA: up, momentum → bull call spread 415/425, priced 13% below fair value

Illustrative example.

Options engine · prices every strategy

LIVE

NVDA Bull call spread 415/425

Debit · 22 days to expiry

Fair value, our surface$4.05
Market price$3.57

Edge

+13.4%

Profit chance

52%

Expected value

0.48

Market charges less than fair value: the structure is cheap.

Illustrative values for the strategy selected.

Directional · mispricing

See the overcharge before you pay it

Once the move is called, every directional structure that fits it is priced against our own volatility surface and compared with what the market is charging. The gap shows as an edge %, with the probability of profit and expected value beside it.

  1. 01Fair value vs market price on dozens of structures per ticker
  2. 02Positive edge flags cheap longs, negative edge flags rich premium
  3. 03Strategies chosen to fit the call on the move, not volatility alone

Volatility · earnings

Earnings is where traders overpay most

Retail traders lose 5 to 9% on average around earnings, and 10 to 14% when a big move is expected, by bidding up options, paying wide spreads and holding after the print. This is a volatility trade, not a directional one: the question is whether the move is priced too big or too small.

Source: de Silva, Smith and So, “Losing is Optional.” Summary

  1. 01Implied move against what each name actually did on its last prints
  2. 02Sell rich event volatility with the delta hedged, so the result depends on the size of the move, not its direction
  3. 03Exit alerts so you don’t hold through the volatility crush

Earnings · implied vs realized move

LIVE
Implied moveActual move
Jan
±6.8%
2.8%
Apr
±7.2%
1.9%
Jul
±7.5%
4.1%
Oct
±8.1%
6.3%

Implied, average

±7.4%

Actual, average

3.8%

Options priced

96% rich

Illustrative history for the ticker selected.

Volatility · delta hedge

LIVE

Long 10 at-the-money straddles at 40% implied vol. No view on direction: the delta is hedged back to zero every day.

Stock price, 10 days

P&L · dots are the daily hedge trades

Delta-hedgedUnhedged
D1 sell 55D2 sell 257D3 buy 192D4 sell 156D5 buy 319D6 sell 235D7 buy 118D8 sell 308D9 buy 259D10 sell 152

WHERE THE HEDGED P&L CAME FROM

Gamma, earned from moves+$4,311
Theta, paid for time−$1,963
Net, delta-hedged+$2,357
Unhedged, for comparison−$1,995

The stock moved more than the 40% you paid for. Gamma earned more than theta cost, and direction played no part.

Illustrative. Hedges are proposals; you approve each one.

Earnings straddle · delta-hedged

Then hedge the delta, and keep only the volatility

Sell the rich straddle into the print and hedge the delta every day. Direction drops out: the result is the volatility you sold against the volatility the stock delivers.

  1. 01Each day’s hedge trade proposed in shares, for your approval
  2. 02P&L split into gamma earned and theta paid, so you see why it worked
  3. 03Toggle whether the stock moves more or less than priced

Blueprints · always watching

Know when to get out

Holding too long is the other half of the overpay. Save a setup and it re-runs on schedule, alerting you when it’s time to enter, adjust or exit.

  1. 01Any Scout scan, Deep Dive setup or position can become a Blueprint
  2. 02Conditions checked on every run, with what held and what broke
  3. 03Push, SMS or email the moment it fires

Blueprints · re-runs on schedule

WATCHING

NVDA

Put credit spread 118/112 · entry

ALERT

SPY

Iron condor 545/550/580/585 · exit

Monitoring

TSLA

Call debit spread 250/265 · adjust

Monitoring

AMD

Covered call 165 · exit

Monitoring

NVDA · entry conditions met (6/6). Time to enter.

Illustrative alerts. Push · SMS · Email.

Wondering how this compares with Moontower, SpotGamma, Unusual Whales or Market Chameleon?

See the comparison →

FAQ

Is the data real-time?

Depending on the data, it refreshes every 5 minutes, every hour or at the end of the day. StockAgents is built for positions held days, weeks and months, not for high-frequency trading.

What is “edge”?

The gap between what an option trades for and what our model says it should trade for, given the volatility surface and term structure. Positive edge means underpriced, negative means overpriced.

Which tickers does it cover?

Stocks and ETFs with listed options. Run a scan across the universe or point a Deep Dive at a single name.

For options traders: stop paying more for options than they’re worth | StockAgents